At that time, short selling was a disastrous loss, but the macro situation was that everyone knew they were going to cut interest rates. PE was already very high, but they insisted on rising because Biden was running for office and kept pulling back afterwards. The difference this time is that there is no political factor. Trump's decision to make people depends purely on Trump's determination. Every time someone says that macro is useless, I disagree. There is also game logic in macro, similar to the logic of handicap games and liquidity games, which use logic in games. However, macro is very complex and has too many influencing factors, making it difficult to analyze. It is far less direct than emotions. But there is a main line in the past three months. The main line is that when all BIG 7 are overbought, Trump wants to solve the debt problem through tariffs. BTC has dropped from 100000, and NVDA has broken through 140 times without success. You should know that the next trend is definitely downward. What makes me uncomfortable is that I can't hold onto/don't integrate knowledge with action enough. I earn too much from small profits and miss out on a lot of profits every time.