GOLDMAN SACHS CUTS 2025 GDP FORECAST TO 0.5% FROM 1.0%. Chief Economist Jan Hatzius says the downgrade reflects an expected 15-point rise in U.S. tariffs, though a major rollback of upcoming April 9 tariffs is still assumed. Goldman also raises its 12-month recession odds from 35% to 45%. If no recession happens, they expect the Fed to start cutting rates in June with three 25bps cuts to 3.50%-3.75%. If a recession hits, they project about 200bps of cuts over the next year.