Barclays: If US inflation expectations spiral out of control, uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's interest rate path will increase

According to a report by Golden Finance, Barclays economists say that the Federal Reserve's interest rate path looks uncertain, and if there is evidence that inflation expectations are becoming unstable, the Fed may reduce or not cut interest rates this year. They wrote in a report that under stagflation pressure, the Federal Open Market Committee may be unwilling to significantly cut interest rates. But they said that if the labor market weakens more noticeably and tariffs have a weaker transmission effect on inflation, it could also lead to greater cuts. Barclays still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June and September of this year. The institution expects to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in June and September next year, depending on the FOMC seeing a significant slowdown in monthly inflation as tariff related pressures weaken. (Golden Ten)