Dan Tapiero
Dan Tapiero|Apr 06, 2025 20:32
Problem isn't just large tariffs. Too much fiscal tightening all at once without policy coordination with Fed. Doge, spending cuts, federal government's rationalization and massive tariffs create huge uncertainty which leads to collapse in growth. Inverted yield curve hurts. Weakening in credit and potential dollar rally will now act to tighten liquidity conditions even more. Short-term creates risk of further air pocket in assets without some pivot to accomodate. Reducing govt deficit and debt is important but can't be done all at once in such short order without fallout as mkts and individuals cannot react fast enough...creates cascading effect that leads to negative reflexivity. Revolutionary macro policy needs to be more gradual though Volkerites out there would disagree but it's not 1980. Destructive week in assets again must be accomodated by immediate Fed action to cushion blow.
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