Trump tariff is working --The viewpoint of a VC partner At first glance, the comprehensive implementation of tariffs by the United States seems to mark a dramatic shift towards protectionism and decoupling from China. But looking at the big picture, they seem more like a more thoughtful strategy: rather than isolation, they are aimed at rebalancing and potentially reaching a major deal. What was the result? It is expected that a large number of transactions will be made with the United States in the coming weeks. 1. Tactical leverage, not endgame policy The short-term goal may not necessarily be to completely cut off ties with China, but to gain bargaining chips through bilateral negotiations and geopolitical games. By pushing allies into tariff based trade negotiations, the United States is designing a form of "soft decoupling" that not only enhances its bargaining power with Beijing, but also unlocks ancillary benefits in the process: trade concessions, regional adjustments, supply chain restructuring, and a clearer understanding of which countries align with the United States' strategic goals. 2. Financial tightening that does not require intervention from the Federal Reserve Tariffs also serve as macroeconomic tools. By increasing import costs, they cooled domestic demand and introduced deflationary pressure, effectively tightening economic conditions without direct intervention from the Federal Reserve. The market perceives a slowdown in growth and will adjust by lowering the expected yield. This downward pressure weakens the US dollar, enhances export competitiveness, and more importantly, reduces the continuously expanding debt refinancing costs in the United States. At a time when trillions of US debts need to be extended, this side effect is by no means accidental. 3. Reflux, Automation, and Taiwan The COVID-19 has exposed the vulnerability of the global supply chain. Considering that about 70% of the world's semiconductors are produced in Asia, most of which are in Taiwan, this problem is particularly prominent. This is not only a supply risk, but also a systemic weakness. It is interesting that the implementation of tariffs coincides with advances in robotics and automation, making production return more feasible. Although this may not be easily or quickly achieved, every step towards diversification will reduce the risk of Taiwan conflict. 4. Two Americans Although tariffs may serve strategic objectives abroad, they also fall into a fragmented domestic environment. In 2024, the number of American vacations in Europe reached a new high, and the number of visits to food banks reached an all-time high. The top 10% of wealthy individuals hold 88% of the stocks; The bottom 50% of people have no stocks and are burdened with debt. They rent, rely on credit cards, and manage car loans. Decades of offshore outsourcing have destroyed the industrial foundation that once supported a broad middle class. Tariffs alone cannot solve this problem, but when combined with wise industrial policies, they can help catalyze reconstruction. 5. Reversible selection space A key feature of this strategy is its built-in selectivity. If tariffs are lifted tomorrow, the position of the United States will be stronger than before: it will reduce its dependence on tariffs (Vietnam, Cambodia, the United Kingdom, etc.) without the need for concessions. Any negative diplomatic impact may be offset by substantial gains obtained through negotiations. From this perspective, tariffs are a reversible tool that can bring strategic benefits even if broader diplomatic goals are not achieved. 6. High risk, high return Success depends on execution: whether the concessions obtained, the macroeconomic benefits achieved, and the accumulated geopolitical leverage are sufficient to offset the risks of rebound, inflation, and long-term reputation damage. But the core reality remains that tariffs can be rapidly expanded, revoked, or repurposed as they were implemented. In the end, this is either a clever multidimensional game or a reckless act of isolation. Time will give the answer, but the louder the opposition, the more it makes people feel that we may be touching on some truth.