Lanli|蓝犁道人
Lanli|蓝犁道人|Apr 05, 2025 16:59
From a historical perspective, extreme Vix is indeed highly correlated with the bottom of the stock market. I think we can also look at it from a valuation perspective. In the past 10 years, the 17x forward PE seemed to be a bottom support line, but now it is 18x and it has not reached the bottom yet. However, the several bottom rebounds of 17x since 2018 were all due to the rebound brought by the Fed's bailout after something broke. For example, the money crisis in 2019, the Federal Reserve's release of funds after the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, and the Federal Reserve's release of funds after the Silicon Valley banking crisis in 2023.
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