Some people worry that this tariff may lead to a similar situation in the entire capital market, including the crypto market, when the 312 COVID-19 epidemic broke out, and think that Bitcoin will certainly plummet later, which I quite disagree with. The impact of the COVID-19 at that time had several characteristics: 1. Uncertainty and panic emotions At the beginning of the epidemic, the transmission speed, mortality rate and the effect of prevention and control measures of COVID-19 are full of unknown. Governments around the world have successively implemented lockdown measures, causing strong concerns among businesses and individuals about the future economic prospects. Investors generally sell assets in exchange for cash, and this panic selling directly triggers a sharp decline in the stock market, bond market, and even the cryptocurrency market. 2. Economic activity stagnates The lockdown policy has led to factory shutdowns, supply chain disruptions, and service industry shutdowns, with many companies facing a sharp decline in revenue or even bankruptcy risks. In March 2020, the economic data of major economies around the world (such as PMI and unemployment rate) deteriorated sharply, and investors' expectations for corporate profitability and economic growth were significantly lowered, naturally putting pressure on the capital market. 3. Liquidity crisis In the early stages of the epidemic, market participants were eager to cash out and avoid risks, leading to a surge in liquidity demand. Whether in traditional financial markets or cryptocurrency markets, asset prices have plummeted due to the mentality of "cash is king". The cryptocurrency market is particularly evident, with assets such as Bitcoin falling nearly 50% in mid March 2020, reflecting its characteristics as a "risky asset". 4. Financial market interconnectivity The global capital markets are highly interconnected, and the volatility of traditional markets quickly spreads to the cryptocurrency market. At that time, the US S&P 500 index fell more than 30% within a few weeks, and this drastic adjustment triggered a synchronous collapse in the cryptocurrency market. Many investors' expectations of Bitcoin as a "digital gold" or safe haven asset have been shattered, further exacerbating the sell-off. 5. Slow initial response to macroeconomic policies At the beginning of the outbreak, the response measures of central banks and governments of various countries were not fully in place. For example, the Federal Reserve did not launch a large-scale quantitative easing policy until mid March 2020. Prior to this, the market lacked strong support and confidence collapsed, leading to a comprehensive decline in asset prices. And the indiscriminate tariff policy this time is not sudden, it has long been expected by the market, so the possibility of a black swan happening is very low. In addition, although tariffs will gradually spread to the economy and market by increasing import costs, disrupting supply chains, and triggering retaliatory measures, they will not quickly paralyze the global economy like the pandemic. Moreover, tariff policies have a certain degree of flexibility. If the economic pressure is too great or negotiations make progress, Trump may adjust or even partially revoke tariffs, which in turn will create a positive stimulus for the market. Therefore, although the tariff war may indeed cause global panic and pressure on the capital market, for Bitcoin, it is not related to the real economy, and the only thing that affects it is the liquidity of fiat currency. Emotions can only affect it in the short term. As the US stock market continues to plummet and high tariffs may lead to a certain period of recession in the US economy, the Federal Reserve will be forced to increase the magnitude of interest rate cuts. Powell's speech yesterday had already given the expectation of two interest rate cuts for the whole year, but the actual number of interest rate cuts may be even greater. It is unlikely for Bitcoin to enter a bear market when liquidity is about to reach a lower interest rate. We can look back at the bull and bear cycles of Bitcoin. Every time Bitcoin enters a bear market, it is due to the decline in liquidity. The current liquidity tension in the market is mainly caused by a lack of confidence and insufficient innovative narrative. As the US dollar continues to cut interest rates, we do not say that counterfeiting will definitely recover, but Bitcoin will continue to demonstrate its uniqueness. If Bitcoin can fully prove itself in this cycle, the Bitcoin strategic reserve order signed by Trump will be more fully implemented. At the same time, innovative plans similar to Bitcoin treasury bond will be introduced one after another, and the glory of Bitcoin will truly come!