Macro Weekly Report for the First Week of April - Tariffs Suppress Global Manufacturing, BTC Bottom Confirmed, Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts May Continue to Delay? This week's keywords: tariff risk, Fed path delay, technology sector under pressure, BTC bottom consensus strengthening Since the beginning of April, the most important variable in the market is Trump's attitude towards tariffs, whether it is "stick" or "result". From the current rhythm, it is more inclined to "stick": although Trump has previously announced that it will implement a new round of tariff policy from April 2, in fact, the first round of 10% basic tariff will not be officially launched until April 5, while the equivalent tariff will be postponed to April 9, which means that the world has a nearly one week buffer period to negotiate with Trump's team and find countermeasures. From the currently disclosed list, China is the country that has been subject to the highest tariffs: equivalent tariffs of up to 34%, base tariffs of 20%, and a total tariff of 54%, ranking first among all countries. It is worth noting that this round of tariffs has not only hit China, but also countries such as Vietnam, Cambodia, and India that have benefited from the transfer of manufacturing in recent years, with tariffs of 46%, 49%, and 26% respectively. The direct consequence is that the Vietnamese stock market has experienced a significant decline. The original intention of this' manufacturing relocation 'was to seek refuge, but it turned into a disaster under the impact of tariff policies. Not only Chinese manufacturing enterprises are affected, but also export-oriented manufacturers in South Korea and Japan are facing enormous pressure. Not to mention Taiwan, which is also subject to a 32% tariff. Although some of TSMC's production capacity has been transferred to the United States, Taiwan remains its core production area, which will inevitably affect chip shipments. Foxconn and other contract manufacturing giants are also the first to bear the brunt, and the ultimate consequences will be reflected in the rising costs and prices of consumer electronics products such as Apple and Samsung. Macro impact and the path of Federal Reserve monetary policy The most direct impact of such a large-scale tariff crackdown in the short term will be reflected in the rise of imported inflation. The manufacturing industry and semiconductor supply will be severely affected, bringing not only headaches to the supply side, but also direct price increases, which will further push up the cost of domestic consumer goods in the United States and increase inflation. However, the inflation in the United States has been difficult to decrease due to the "three highs of rent, insurance, and services" at the beginning of the year, and now there is a layer of "rising costs of imported goods". Although the market still believes that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in June, my personal view is not so optimistic. Unless there is an economic recession, the expectation of interest rate cuts is likely to be further delayed. This also explains why US bond yields have started to decline recently, gold has continued to strengthen (relatively), and the market is re pricing the possibility of "long-term high interest rates" while seeking risk hedging tools. In addition, Powell's speech also gave hawkish views on the economy and inflation, acknowledging the potential risks of a downturn in the economy and never relaxing on interest rate cuts. He cleverly shifted the issues of the economy and inflation to the issue of tariffs, and the probability of a US economic recession is indeed gradually increasing. However, Trump still has a trump card in his hand, which is tax reduction, which may include the reduction of capital gains tax on cryptocurrency. If it is introduced, it will certainly improve the investor's investment sentiment. The reaction of US stocks and technology stocks From the performance of the US stock market, although the S&P and Nasdaq have started to decline, and the continuous decline has exceeded 5%, the VIX index has once again exceeded 45, and the US stock market is in a state of panic. Companies that heavily rely on overseas foundries and chips, such as Apple and Nvidia, are beginning to be suppressed by expectations of cost pressures. Pure software and AI service-oriented companies such as Microsoft and Google are less affected by the supply chain, and their decline may be reduced. However, because they are still affected by the AI trend, these software companies will inevitably be dragged down by Nvidia and will not be very friendly. In addition, domestic manufacturers in the United States, especially new energy and military enterprises that intend to return, such as Lockheed (LMT), Northrop (NOC), and First Solar (FSLR), have not benefited from the logic of "manufacturing return" and have experienced capital rotation. Even locally manufactured Tesla may experience a decline in supply or purchasing power. The overall decline of the US stock market is not only suppressed by tariffs, but also by expectations of economic recession. On the whole, the expectation of tariffs and recession will have a greater impact on US stocks, especially for the current popular Crispy fried chicken Ai, whose cost will rise from upstream. Bitcoin and the Cryptocurrency Industry Although there is a lack of independent narrative at the current stage, Bitcoin has emerged from a completely independent market trend. From the market performance in the past week, although market sentiment has been affected by tariff policies and overall risk appetite has fallen, BTC prices have not fallen significantly, and even fluctuated above $80000, failing to effectively fall below the previous low of $77000. This indicates that there is still strong consensus and support in the market within the current price range. As has been pointed out multiple times before, as long as there are no clear signs of economic recession, BTC's core support will come from two directions: 1. Continuously buying ETFs. 2. Listed companies that use BTC as a strategic reserve asset. The combined holdings of these two parts are close to 2 million BTC, roughly corresponding to a value range above $70000. This means that even if the market fluctuates, this price range is still a strong bottom logic area. Therefore, if BTC drops below $77000 or even briefly falls below before retesting in the short term, from the perspective of fund management and risk return ratio, gradually allocating some spot trading for short-term trading is a cost-effective strategy. From a longer-term perspective, BTC's performance may continue to be constrained by US macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve policies, especially before and after the release of key data such as CPI, employment data, and FOMC meeting minutes. It is necessary to pay attention to the possibility of rising volatility and dynamically adjust position structure. On chain data Although the price of BTC has not fundamentally changed in the past week, the amount of BTC stored on exchanges has been continuously decreasing. This data represents that there are still many investors who believe that BTC will have a good future, but it may not be in the short term. In fact, during this period, simple data may better represent investors' emotions. If there is a panic in the market, a large number of investors will inevitably choose to stop loss or take profits and leave. Even if they do not have plans to leave temporarily, they will transfer BTC to the exchange and wait for the opportunity to rebound to leave. However, through this data, it can be seen that there is no sign of a large amount of BTC accumulating on the exchange, which means that even if the price falls, it is difficult for investors to give up their chips. In addition, there are two sets of data that I have been paying attention to personally. One is the total market value of stablecoins, especially the mainstream stablecoins USDT and USDC. As of now, the market value of both stablecoins is on the rise, especially USDC, which is now being used more by investors in the United States and Europe. The increase in USDC market value indicates that more funds have entered the cryptocurrency field. Although purchasing power may not have been formed yet, it represents investors' willingness to invest. Another set of data is URPD, which shows that there is currently no panic among investors through the distribution of BTC on the chain. The main force of turnover is still short-term investors, and there are no signs of a large number of long-term and high net worth investors leaving. Instead, high net worth investors are continuously increasing their holdings of BTC. Recent investment portfolio Affected by tariffs, the risk market is already very concerned about recession, so some of the idle funds will be prepared to buy 20-year or 30-year US bonds. As mentioned earlier, it can lock in nearly 4.5% annualized profits and arbitrage in the secondary market when funds are needed, after all, the United States will inevitably enter into economic easing policies. But it will only be implemented after the tariff policy is implemented on April 9th. If the tariffs are not implemented according to the worst-case scenario, there may be an opportunity for the risk market to rebound. Therefore, at this stage, a small amount of BTC spot can be allocated, or some options can be allocated for hedging. This tweet is sponsored by @ ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With Apex