Why hasn't the big cake followed the decline in the US stock market? Everyone is talking about why Da Bing is so "hard". Last night, Da Bing withstood another shock from the US stock market, and from last Friday to last night, it withstood three waves of shock. There are various interpretations and my understanding. 1. In fact, there have been two instances in the past four years where the big pie did not follow the decline in the US stock market. 1) From August 2023 to the end of October 2023 (Figure 1), the US stock market began to adjust and decline from early August 2023. The Big Dipper fell to around 25000 on August 18, 2023, and on September 14, it retraced slightly below 25000. After that, the Big Dipper did not fall and continued to fluctuate in late October. During this period, the S&P 500 fell by more than -10%. In late October, the US Treasury liquidity crisis intensified until Powell and Yellen both intervened to rescue the market, including Bill at Pershing Square Akaman publicly went long on US Treasury bonds in late October, leading to a large-scale trend in cryptocurrency stocks 2) From late February to mid March 2022, due to the continuous rise in inflation, the market was worried that the Federal Reserve would significantly raise interest rates. On February 24th, the Russia Ukraine war broke out. The Big Dipper fell to around 32000, and then fluctuated up and down until mid March without falling below 32000. During this period, the S&P fell by another -7%. It was not until March that the first 25 basis point interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve of China and the United States met expectations, triggering a small-scale rebound (from two to three weeks to early April). The trend after April should be remembered by everyone, and the main decline wave of 22 years really came. 2. Why did this situation occur? 1) I previously had a logical endpoint for liquidity, https:// ((((x.com))))/qinbafrank/status/1808137881808261386? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A， As a liquidity endpoint, funds flow from the cryptocurrency market first in, first out, first into the US stock market, and then into the cryptocurrency market. When withdrawing, they first withdraw from small currencies to large currencies before finally withdrawing from the US stock market and large technology. So in the past, every time there was an adjustment, it was the small coins that first collapsed (much like Russell 2000 in the US stock market), then the big cakes began to adjust, and finally it was the large cap stocks in the US stock market. The fundamentals of cryptocurrency are weaker than those of the US stock market, and with more leverage, it is often easy to clear the leverage first when it falls. This year is also a big pie. Actually, it started to decline and adjust from late January, and the US stock market fell from the February 21st line (in fact, you can look back at every major level adjustment, the big pie started first, and most of them hit the bottom before the US stock market). In addition, there were two retracements at the positions of 80000 and 76000 in mid to July of March. From this perspective, there is indeed a slight downward trend in the short term. I also talked about this point with a friend in late March. 2) Falling to the bottom first is only an observation based on experience. Here is the tweet from Brother M @ Murphychen888 today, https:// ((((x.com))))/murphychen888/status/1908344109473169832? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A also has a good explanation from the perspective of on chain chips. The concentration of chips around 81000 is extremely high, and they are only held by a small group of large investors who ignore short-term price fluctuations. This can also explain why the selling pressure decreases significantly every time it reaches 81000. 3) From a deeper level of logic@ Trader_S18 and @ HAZENED_ two digit https:// ((((x.com))))/trader_s18/status/1908028871523627436? I personally agree with the logic of the change in the proportion of the intrinsic attributes of the pancake, such as finance, technology, gold, and casino. The fluctuation of the pancake can also be seen as the result of the continuous adjustment and change in the proportion of these attributes due to market divergence. Brother Li mentioned that the current big cake is 0.7 of the Nasdaq+0.3 of gold. 3. What should we look at next? 1) In the past two times, the big cake did not fall with the US stock market, but there was a wave of upward trend when the US stock market was in place. The only difference is that in mid March 2022, there was only a small-scale rebound, followed by a main decline. In late October 2023, a large-scale upward trend market began. Essentially, it also depends on whether the macro situation is improving in the short term or completely reversing. 2) On Thursday, when tariffs were implemented, I talked about it on Twitter at https:// ((((x.com))))/qinbafrank/status/1907568948633379027? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A， The period from April 2nd to April 9th, before the implementation of equivalent tariffs, should be the peak of short-term uncertainty: on the one hand, the strongest tariffs bring the most pessimistic expectations; On the other hand, the strength of countermeasures taken by other countries in the market and the outcome of the tariff game between each country and the United States may lead to some reductions or exemptions. Yesterday, China took strong countermeasures, which triggered another decline in the US stock market. Next, it depends on how the EU and Canada respond (these two countries are still very tough at the moment). Vietnam, Argentina, Thailand, Cambodia, and others have announced tariff cuts, Mexico has said it will not introduce countermeasures, the UK and Australia are currently holding their ground, and Japan and South Korea are still studying (probably softer). If some countries do indeed receive partial tariff reductions on April 9th, it will be good news for the market in the short term, bringing emotional boost and confidence recovery, and a rebound can be expected. But whether it can be reversed depends not only on tariffs, but also on whether the addition of tariffs in the future (even if partially reduced, it will still add a benchmark tax rate of 10%) will bring about a rebound in inflation, and whether the US economic data will only weaken or really decline. Previously, there was a lot of market uncertainty this year, and it was very possible for the market to experience several major fluctuations.