Why has the trend of cryptocurrency suddenly decoupled from the US stock market? I have seen many friends discussing, and I would like to share some personal thoughts: 1) Asking this question is first and foremost a case of "putting the cart before the horse". From the first day Satoshi Nakamoto introduced Bitcoin, cryptocurrency has been positioned as a decentralized currency issuance method, an independent currency system from the traditional financial system, and should not be controlled by a single market. After all, the cross-border free circulation of cryptocurrencies, without relying on any country's credit endorsement, as well as decentralized mining governance mechanisms, especially the trust guarantee of its total issuance and technology, all make it necessary to maintain "independence"; 2) However, for a long time in the past, cryptocurrencies and US stocks have maintained a strong correlation and have not shown their independent currency characteristics, as early profits from cryptocurrencies may have been made by some technology stock investors, with a significant overlap in their investment groups. However, compared with the traditional trust system of US stocks and US bonds, cryptocurrency is too fragile, which is why it came into being. When US stocks fell and even Los Angeles got angry, everyone said that Americans sold their currency circle assets to avoid risks (increase their holdings of US stocks or treasury bond?). This connection was once the spiritual food of many crypto practitioners, but strictly speaking, it was against the original intention of cryptology. The current cryptocurrency industry is greatly influenced by a series of policies in the United States, which is also why; 3) The question is, it is easy to understand the impact of a series of policies such as the US interest rate hike and ETF approval, as well as SEC regulation, on cryptocurrency. This is also the logic behind the expected interest rate cut and large-scale release of funds. Why has cryptocurrency decoupled from the US stock market under the current sky shaking tariff policy that even economists like Keynes cannot withstand? On the one hand, spot ETFs provide a "channel" for US stock investors to invest in cryptocurrencies normally. In the context of unstable core US stock assets, cryptocurrencies will naturally become a "safe haven asset". The fundamental reason lies in the uncertainty of investors' expectations for the future economy of the United States, such as potential economic recession and the weakening of the US dollar hegemony system. Therefore, the performance of the cryptocurrency independent market at this moment only indicates that the impact of tariffs is too long-lasting and has great uncertainty, to the extent that cryptocurrencies are considered effective safe haven assets; On the other hand, although tariffs may seem like a big stick that increases the cost of imported and exported goods, it directly drives the occurrence of "inflation". However, this inflation is often temporary. If tariffs disrupt the normal consumption expenditure of the people and the total demand for consumption shrinks, this short-term inflation is considered "deflation" in the long run, and even comes at the cost of economic recession. This is why some traders have raised their forecasts for the number of interest rate cuts. So, the macro expectation of interest rate cuts and water releases has not weakened but rather strengthened. Although Powell has not relaxed, Trump's crazy spirit will definitely further promote the occurrence of this move; The key is that the long-term impact of tariff policies is on the currency issuance systems of some medium or weak countries. Obviously, with the increase of tariffs, the cost of these countries reserving US dollars through exporting goods will rise, and the trust guarantee of their domestic currency anchored to the issuance of US dollars will also weaken. In other words, the currency issuance system of these countries, which is already overly dependent on the US dollar, will become more fragile and even have the possibility of collapse. At this point, cryptocurrencies with more open international circulation and globalization compared to the US dollar will become a "reasonable" alternative? Of course, other strong trust sovereign endorsements such as the euro and the renminbi can also be chosen, but the anchoring relationship of these currencies is not so fast, and the short-term benefits are still more independent cryptocurrencies, after all, cryptocurrencies are also a channel to climb into the US economic system. above. Note： The complexity of macroeconomic policies and the impact on the secondary market far exceeds all rational logic. The decoupling performance this time may only be temporary, but the spiritual core of "Make Crypto Great Again" behind it is particularly commendable.