
BITWU.ETH|Apr 04, 2025 23:20
This decoupling is not a coincidence, it may be the beginning of a trend:
BTC is not a part of the market, but a backup of the market.
Are digital currencies not following the decline of the US stock market?
It may become the norm in the future!
The direct reason for the sharp decline in the US stock market is simple: Trump's tariff trade war has officially begun, and market panic has risen, fearing a global economic recession. Therefore, funds have withdrawn from the US stock market and returned to US bonds and other assets for safe haven.
To some extent, I think tariff trade is a good thing for us, and we should thank Trump——
Bitcoin may be gradually completing a transformation of its asset identity in this round:
From high volatility risk assets to non sovereign hedging tools, institutional investors will begin to include BTC in their global hedging portfolios,
I used to say it was inevitable,
And the tariff war will accelerate this process!
The tariffs have the greatest impact on trade and technology companies, directly affecting the future expectations of the stock market,
However, in times of geopolitical conflicts or doubts about the credibility of the US dollar, cryptocurrencies may actually receive capital inflows;
BTC is no longer just a substitute for technology stocks, but more like a financial asset outside the system. Investors' confidence in it is gradually independent of US stocks and dollar policies.
Another point to note:
What I'm talking about is only Bitcoin, not digital currency. Shanzhai coins are still high-risk assets with high volatility, BTC is the 'new macro asset'!
But——
Although Bitcoin has shown resistance in the short term,
But if the global macro environment further deteriorates (such as soaring US bond yields, rising US dollar indices, and continuous net outflows of ETFs), the cryptocurrency market may also face pressure to make up for the decline;
In addition, if the US stock market continues to deteriorate and market panic spreads further, cryptocurrency assets as "high beta assets" still have downside risks.
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