We are currently pricing 4.5 interest rate cuts within the year, which is a very aggressive pricing level. Although the economy is standing at the fork of the road between re inflation and recession, the interest rate curve has formed a typical bull slope trend in the past month, indicating that the power of valuation recession is stronger - the market lacks confidence in the economy under tariff policies. The current economic 'hard data' is not bad enough. If Powell chooses to be the new generation Volcker, he will not choose to cut interest rates in April or May. Now with interest rate cuts and the implementation of trade countermeasures by various countries, the market is facing short-term inflationary trading. Summary: I personally believe that Powell will not give a Fed put in April or May, at least until the "hard data" weakens before turning around. He should buy at the bottom, but not now. Now is the time to endure the old man.