The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 56.7% The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 56.7%, a decrease from 60.1% before the non farm payroll announcement. The probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut is 43.3%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until June is 0, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 52.1%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 44.3%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points is 3.5%.