日月小楚 |Building AI Agents
日月小楚 |Building AI Agents|Apr 04, 2025 07:43
The most interesting thing about this round is that the valuation cycle of the project is completely opposite to the cycle of the coin price. From the perspective of BTC's coin price, it was undervalued in 2022 and 2023, and reached its peak in 2024. In terms of project valuation, 2022 and 2023 were at their peak, while 2024 began to decline. The core reason for this is 1) The market has too much confidence in the 25 year bull market. Resulting in a large influx of new money from giants into the industry, investing in venture capital and laying out projects in advance. However, the flood of funds raised the valuation of projects, which led to the existence of 1 billion FDV projects in 22 years and 23 years, forming an obvious foam. 2) The feedback cycle of the primary investment market is very long, and it takes several years for VC to invest, issue coins to the project party, and then unlock all of them. So it resulted in slow response from both the VC and the project team This path is VC funds project party exchange TGE secondary retail investors. Starting from 2022, it started walking from left to right. Starting from the 24th year, there has been a clear divergence between a large number of overvalued projects and limited market funds. As a result, although BTC reached a new high in early 2024, altcoins continued to decline. And now this path is starting to go in reverse, starting with retail investors unwilling to buy VC coins at the secondary level and moving from right to left. Recently, there has been a clear phenomenon that the market value of new coins on Binance is decreasing, including circulating market value and FDV. For example, the current circulating market value of Parti and Gun is only a few tens of millions, while previously, the circulating market value of Nillion and Red could reach around 1-2 billion, and in 2022 and 2023, many projects could reach a circulating market value of 3-5 billion. The Heavenly King level can reach billions. In addition to the declining market value of new projects, Binance has been constantly trying new paths since being criticized 24 years ago. Now this CZ and HeYi are shouting, going to Alpha, going to Contract, and voting on the Binance main site. This is purely a route on the chain. And at every step, data is obtained and filtered from it. This is actually bad news for VC investment projects. Retail investors are the most convenient for action. I don't want to buy a second level knockoff after losing a few times Secondly, the exchange needs to try conversion methods, such as Binance. It is quite difficult for the project team to obtain a high valuation from VC, and they need to be accountable. They also need to make money themselves, and the uncertainty of Binance's new path is high. VCs are currently the most passive because they can't do anything, at most they don't invest in new ones, but for the money that has already been invested, they can only wait for news. 25 years of BTC may reach a new high, but what we may see is that in the past, many project parties in Da Xiong City went bankrupt. And this time, it may be due to the collapse of project parties during the 25 year bull market. Overall, the valuation of the project and VC firms will undergo a re evaluation, estimated to take at least 1-2 years to reach an underestimation.
+5
Mentioned
Share To

Timeline

HotFlash

APP

X

Telegram

Facebook

Reddit

CopyLink

Hot Reads