TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人|Apr 04, 2025 01:32
The impact of increased tariffs by the United States on the global economic landscape and industrial division can be roughly compared to the dissolution of the Soviet Union. When the Soviet Economic Cooperation Council was still in place, the Soviet Union's member republics and contracting states could exchange goods internally, forming a larger industrial chain and market. The Soviet Economic Cooperation Council can actually be seen as a scaled down and degraded version of the US WTO (predecessor GATT), so the impact of the dissolution of the Economic Cooperation Council on the contracting parties is actually like a precursor to the current situation, and it is a very rare and difficult to reproduce social experiment. When the Economic Cooperation Council was still in existence, the Soviet Union could produce the Varyag aircraft carrier and the AN-225 giant transport plane, and North Korea had sufficient fuel and fertilizer. It entered the era of mechanized agriculture very early on, and its economy even led South Korea in the early years. But the main body of the Soviet Union, Russia, felt that it had been subsidizing its allies in the small world at a disadvantage, so it voluntarily dissolved the Soviet Union under economic pressure. In the end, not only did it cause the member countries and friendly countries to fall into economic collapse, but it also regressed for 30 years and stagnated for another 30 years. It was also devastated by shock therapy. The current world order is in the same situation, but on a larger scale. The United States feels that it has cut its own flesh to subsidize the world and suffered a great loss, so it wants to withdraw from the existing global order system. Although the two countries face vastly different problems, such as: 1. The Soviet Union was forced to collapse, and the United States currently appears to have voluntarily withdrawn, but in reality, both were political adjustments that had to be made under immense pressure 2. The collapse of the Soviet Union was rapid and relatively simple, but the borders of the member states were not clear in the early stages, and the personnel within the original system were still emotionally close due to historical reasons. The adjustment in the United States has been brewing for at least 8 years, leaving ample time for countries to prepare for the adjustment. Many industrial chains have already been dispersed and transferred from the previous major producing countries. Example: China invests in building factories in Southeast Asia 3. The Soviet planned economy system was rigid, with poor corporate autonomy and low fault tolerance. The production enterprises under the American system are more flexible, and they are among the world's leading in terms of technological content and market flexibility 4. Market resilience and financial system resilience vary greatly. The income structure of the Soviet Union was single, with oil and gas exports accounting for 68% of hard currency income. If the tariff issue continues without improvement, it may trigger four major problems in the semiconductor industry, energy industry, automotive industry, and food supply, leading to further disorder in the world. The ebb of globalization is inevitably accompanied by economic recession, which can lead to the collapse of risk markets such as the stock and currency markets. The timing of bottom fishing is crucial. If you start early, you will stay in the pit for a long time, and if you start late, you will break your thigh. In addition, as a financial empire, the United States has super strong control over the financial system, and even if the real economy collapses or declines, it can still rise against the trend. In such a complex and intertwined environment of multiple factors, the myth of getting rich by taking big cakes in the early days no longer exists. Similar opportunities for getting rich in the future may be in other new industries, but with too many people, they are gradually accepted by the mainstream. Industries with significantly declining emerging dividends are only stronger than traditional sunset industries, and it is difficult to have a nationwide carnival under special historical conditions. In the transition between the old and new systems, that is, the process of changing villages, countless people will inevitably become victims, but chaos is a ladder. In the current era of class solidification, this is also a rare opportunity to change the class, and countless ambitious individuals will emerge. If the original single market of the world evolves into three to four large regional markets due to trade wars and tariff wars, the role that Bitcoin will play in it will determine its future price. If the market splits and the pancake becomes a more weighted stored value or equivalent exchange, with more and larger players accepting it, then the price will naturally rise. If Bitcoin is only attached to American capital and the United States declines from a "world country" to an "American country" with Trump's shrinking strategy, the upper limit of Bitcoin must be lower than the general acceptance as a "world country". So we not only need to pay attention to the release of liquidity by the Federal Reserve, but also to the division of labor and ecological niche of Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency industry in the future new international system. After all, just like whether you make money in a company depends not only on the overall profitability of the company, but also on your position and voice within the company
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