
𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂|Apr 03, 2025 20:52
I think there is a growing disconnect between what people hope this economic shakeup leads to (i.e. fixing affordability in housing) and how long they think the markets will endure pain (1-2 quarters). I'm not saying I know what *will* happen, because I don't, but if we cool off for a couple months just to start stimulating and ripping again in the fall, we will solve p much nothing. Price levels will go higher again after a brief cooling.
In a related but different disconnect, this trade war will not bring American manufacturing back on a rapid enough timeline to make significant headroom in our productive output until well after Trump is gone. Factories take years, supply chains take even longer to move, and there is no assurance that human labor demand will increase meaningfully. Meanwhile our unit labor costs are the highest in the G20 and Americans won't take a pay cut. They're already in an aforementioned affordability quagmire.
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