Today's homework is quite good. It's about the extension of yesterday's tariff incident. Even now, the market hasn't gone out of panic. I'm not surprised that VIX's data can exceed 30 today. There have been three times in the past month that it has hovered around 30, and 30 may only be the data of the adjustment period. Often, exceeding 50 is the beginning of a recession. Generally speaking, if you don't enter a recession, exceeding 30 is a good opportunity to buy at the bottom, and if you enter a recession after 50, buying is a good opportunity. So far, the NASDAQ has dropped by more than 4.5%, and the S&P has dropped by more than 4%, but the downward trend has not eased, mainly because the tariff was unexpected by too many people. It can be said that Trump's tariff policy this time even Hurd Island and McDonald Islands, where there are only penguins but no people, have charged 10% tariff. Penguins have to pay two fish in tears when passing by. I am not qualified to evaluate tariffs, and evaluating them is of no use. Based on the results, it is not the final tariff implementation plan, but the "maximum force" plan. I even suspect that this plan is only for display and has no possibility of implementation. However, the outcome will still make the risk market pay before April 9th. The matter of tariff is very similar to that of FDUSD. Trump shouted, and then the US stock market was falling. On the 9th, Trump said that the plan would not be implemented, and then the US stock market was rising slowly. But who do these investors who are falling and cutting their flesh to reason with? You go to Trump? Go find the US government? Go find the White House? Or should we go find NASDAQ or the Chicago Stock Exchange? I can't even find it, so I have to admit it myself. At least FDUSD still has a chance to sue, while the US stock market doesn't. This is the weakness of the risk market driven by policy events, but you should know that this is not a difficult model, because there are macro and economic driven events, which is even more fatal. Why April will be difficult is because many things are unpredictable, especially with Trump, the biggest uncertainty. I think Chuanpu elected a good time to announce the tariff. Yesterday, it was only after the closing of the US stock market that it announced the big killer. Today, there will be a day of decline, and tomorrow there will be non farm data. If this data is good, it may ease the anxiety of the market. Today, there has been a White House endorsement. This tariff is implemented in the "worst case", so it can be considered that as long as it is not expected to decline, the time to stop the decline in these two days should be a short-term bottom. Of course, when GDP is announced in the middle of the month, this logic no longer holds true. What if tomorrow's non farm payroll data is not good? Then let's continue to decline. What else can we do? The market has to digest it on its own. When there is enough pricing for tariffs, it's the bottom. (Excluding recession factors) However, for cryptocurrencies, it may not be as friendly because the US stock market is closed on weekends, giving US stock investors two days to ease their panic, but cryptocurrencies do not have this buffer. From the data of Bitcoin, today's decline has brought panic, and the panic itself is not due to price drops, but due to tariffs. According to the estimation of American economists, if this set of tariffs is implemented, the inflation level in the United States will return to 5%. This means that either the economy will decline, or the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates, which will increase the probability of economic recession. Therefore, the probability of economic recession will rise sharply, which is the main reason for panic. So it is not difficult to see from the data that although most of the turnover comes from short-term investors, there is also a trend of turnover among long-term investors. Although it is relatively small, it still represents that some long-term investors choose to leave due to uncertainty about the future. In addition, the investors who bought the bottom yesterday are cutting a lot of meat. In fact, Bitcoin is relatively lucky compared to the US stock market. Today, BTC's decline is relatively stable, and it has not fallen below the previous low of $77000 for a long time. The US stock market has already fallen to the level of August 2024, so BTC's stability is still quite high. Of course, this does not rule out the possibility that cryptocurrency has not been cleared yet. Let's take a look, but I still have some expectations for the stability of BTC. After all, from the data, there is still no sign of panic in the largest chip concentration area of $93000 to $98000. Tomorrow's non farm payroll data, I hope it can improve investor sentiment. This tweet is sponsored by @ ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With Apex