WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF A U.S. RECESSION IN 2025? 🔸 Kalshi: 53% 🔸 Larry Summers: 50% 🔸 JPMorgan: 40% 🔸 CNBC Fed Survey: 36% 🔸 Moody’s Analytics: 35% 🔸 Pimco: 35% 🔸 Goldman Sachs: 35% The U.S. economy faces heightened uncertainty in 2025, with recession odds surging after Trump’s "Liberation Day" tariff announcement on April 2. Kalshi markets now price a 53% chance, up 8.1 points, driven by a 10% universal tariff, higher levies on key trading partners (e.g., 34% on China, 20% on the EU), declining consumer confidence, and global trade tensions. JPMorgan warns of a 660 billion annual tax increase on Americans, potentially fueling 2% higher inflation. WHAT TO WATCH: Immediate market reactions, retaliatory measures from trading partners like Canada and the EU, and upcoming consumer spending data. The economy’s fate hinges on the extent of tariff implementation and global responses in the coming weeks. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrecssnber/recession