Whales' Special Market Wrap: How Might Universal Tariffs Affect Crypto Investing? BTC 30D ATM IV: 48.34% | ETH 30D ATM IV: 64.36% | SOL 30D ATM IV: 92.04% SPX 30D ATM IV: 18.33% | QQQ 30D ATM IV: 23.79% | GLD 30D ATM IV: 16.01% BTC annualised 1yr implied yield: 6.03% ETH annualised 1yr implied yield: 5.42% The official implementation of Trump's universal tariff policy has obviously exceeded investors' expectations to a certain extent. Although the scientificity and professionalism of some policies are still under discussion, the impact of cumulative tariffs and secondary tariffs on the global market is real. Even penguins will face a 10% tariff - this means that the operating costs of the global trade network closely related to the United States will be significantly increased. In response, it is unlikely that countries will not take countermeasures. But at the same time, countries will also strengthen economic ties within the region (EU, AS, etc.) and provide economic stimulus to their own countries to reduce the adverse impact of US tariffs on the economy to a certain extent. It must be admitted that this is actually not good news for investors, especially domestic investors. Due to the regionalisation trend caused by tariffs, the cost of hot money onshore and the risk of investing in overseas stock markets will increase. At the same time, the economic rebalancing of various countries caused by tariffs, whether imported inflation caused by reducing external commodity imports or economic stagnation caused by reduced external demand, will suppress the stock market's performance to a certain extent. In addition, investors' reduction of investment in assets strongly pegged to the US dollar and further implementation of portfolio rebalancing will also be a trend that may continue in the near future. As a result, US stocks, altcoins, and other assets strongly pegged to the US dollar are likely to be sold further by investors for risk aversion. At the same time, more funds will be concentrated in money market funds, bonds, commodities, BTC, cash and stablecoins, for most of these assets are offshore and are much less affected by tariffs than onshore assets. To some extent, this is somewhat similar to the revival of the old "Arab merchants" and "merchant banks" narrative: due to concerns about tariffs, a large amount of liquidity will be concentrated in the offshore markets, and the resulting demand increase in brokers, risk management and transaction cost control will further promote the prosperity of the offshore market. For crypto investors, BTC, gold-proxy tokens and stablecoins are their few choices. BTC is one of the few assets in the crypto market that is less tied to the US dollar and can be regarded as an "alternative payment system", similar to gold to a certain extent. In addition, as part of the "Eurodollar 2.0" system, the offshore attributes of stablecoins and their bond-binding attributes mean that their own security and risk aversion capabilities are significantly higher than other equity-type crypto assets. In addition, as a derivative channel of the offshore market, RWA-type crypto assets may also benefit from the offshore demand brought about by tariffs. As for altcoins, due to their deep binding with the US dollar, before the end of the portfolio rebalancing and "de-dollarisation" process, since investors will not take risks in a high financing rate environment and high uncertainty environment, the market share of altcoins can be expected to shrink further, and the duration of their sluggish performance will even be calculated in "years" rather than "months". Only the liquidity brought by the interest rate cut can stabilise the performance of the altcoin market to a certain extent. Still, due to the influence of risk aversion, the newly added liquidity makes it difficult to promote the revival of the altcoin market. It is already terrific to be able to "maintain the current level".