
Daan Crypto Trades|Apr 03, 2025 09:10
Some more thoughts on the current situation:
(No macro expert just stating some observations and thoughts).
1. BTC with a relatively good performance during the past 24 hours and past few weeks in general. (Compared to stocks and how it acted in the past).
2. Market initially rallied after thinking there was “just” a 10% flat tariff worldwide. Seems like that would be a good outcome still if it were to negotiated down to that point.
3. Many of the Reciprocal Tariffs are so high they make little sense. This tells me that these are not planned to be in place long term at all and negotiations/deal-making will probably happen fast.
A lot of it is still a big show and if Trump can claim victory with a list of dozens of countries that have already dropped their tariffs towards the US by the next 1-2 weeks, he’ll gladly take that. Even if these make little to no actual change. The narrative and show of power is what matters.
4. Think the larger countries will be the most stubborn as they can hold on for a while and got more to negotiate for. This will still create this sense of uncertainty and headwind in the short term. Expecting retaliations by EU/China etc.
The smaller countries hit with 30%+ tariffs are likely to give in first as they got the most to lose.
5. Dollar going down a lot which should help in the end with cheaper imported goods by from the US by other counties.
6. BTC looks willing to rally but being held down by macro uncertainty and stock weakness. Look for signs of outperformance. Market can climb the wall of worry even with potential bearish catalysts ahead.
Going to be an interesting week. Watch for potential retaliations & deals being made. With the deadlines on the tariffs being implemented nearing and the entire world being involved, I think we’ll see plenty of news this week.
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