
Jim Bianco|Apr 03, 2025 04:50
I've called the May 7 FOMC meeting the most important FOMC meeting of the year. If the Fed cannot find a reason to cut on May 7, they will never find a reason.
Orange is the market probability of a rate cut at the May 7 FOMC meeting. Hours after the tariffs announcement, with stocks getting crushed tonight, it is still only 25% (75% of no move).
What more does the Fed need? Could it be the fear of cutting into rising inflation?
Blue is the market probability of a rate cut at the June 18 FOMC meeting is 89% (11% of no move). If the Fed does not cut in May, I expect this to dwindle to a 0% probability.
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