
The Kobeissi Letter|Apr 02, 2025 23:30
Our thoughts on the outcome of "Liberation Day" in the US:
1. Just about all hopes of tariffs being "less widespread than expected" have been crushed today with new tariffs on 185 countries
2. The Trump Administration has been articulating EXACTLY what they were going to do for months
3. Now, the stock market is finally starting to believe what they are saying
4. On March 6th, President Trump said he was "not watching the stock market," but markets looked past it
5. The narrative quickly became "short-term pain for a long-term gain"
6. Today, President Trump doubled down on that view, raising tariffs on China to a whopping 54%
7. Minutes later, Treasury Secretary Bessent said "the stock market selloff is a Mag7 problem, not a MAGA problem"
8. With the Nasdaq 100 now set to open more than 900 points lower, the question is what's next?
9. In times of extreme volatility, we look to trade swings in sentiment
10. Short-term price action will not be based on fundamentals, it will be based on shifts in sentiment
For now, tariffs are set to go live on April 5th and 9th without a clear end in sight to the trade war.
Sentiment will become more polarized and positioning will follow, avoid catching a falling knife.
Don't fear the volatility, capitalize on it.
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