I find that the market is still not ready for what Trump needs to do. I always think that he is bluffing and taking tariff as a bargaining chip. To understand several basic logics: 1/The US government is extremely short of money. Trump and his people have realized that if the deficit continues to be so high, the US debt will play, along with the US dollar. Therefore, it is necessary to find income The path of reducing expenses has been basically abandoned, and if the Hundred Day Reform does not reach the parliament, it will be of no use. 3/Collecting tariffs is an important source of revenue, 10% means 400 billion, and 50% means 2 trillion new government revenue! Of course, imports will decrease, and the actual number will be smaller. This portion of income is important to the US government 4/Because Trump also wants to reduce taxes for the rich, which is his campaign promise to the fund owners and must be realized. 5/While balancing the government deficit, Trump also hopes to enhance the competitiveness of the domestic manufacturing industry, which can be achieved through tariffs or depreciation of the US dollar. The problem with depreciating the US dollar is that it does not help the US government deficit in any way. Therefore, the final solution or outcome may be a hybrid model: tariff increase+simultaneous depreciation. Whether it is an increase in tariffs or a depreciation of the US dollar, it is negative for the US risk market, especially the devaluation - the first wave of downgrades on January 20th was due to funds fleeing due to the prospect of US dollar depreciation described in the Mar-a-Lago agreement. In short, give up illusions and wait for a process of breaking first and then standing.