
Lanli|蓝犁道人|Apr 02, 2025 21:39
BTC peaked at 8.8w and then fell back.
Being able to reach 8.8 indicates that there is still liquidity in the market at present, but it should be noted that it is not "abundant". If there is abundant, the knockoff season will have arrived earlier.
TGA has dropped from 800b on January 21 to 300b yesterday, which is the main source of liquidity at present - without Trump's new policy, it could have made btc hit 11-12w, but
The matter of tariffs has come to a temporary end, and there will be ups and downs in the future, but overall it will not look good. Even though Trump's goal is to devalue the US dollar - the problem is that the devaluation of the US dollar is worse for the risk market.
And since the tax season starts on April 10th, TGA will extract 100-200b of liquidity.
Could this be a good opportunity to buy at the bottom?
Perhaps it can be done in the short to medium term. Before TGA runs out, perhaps the market will go up and down like this.
However, after the tga has spent and/or reached the upper limit of treasury bond, the market will again fall into a lack of liquidity.
Xiao Hei's calculation is too optimistic, for example, he also counts the decrease in Fed QT as liquidity - how could he calculate it like that.
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