Regarding the current credit risk spread in the United States, there have been many discussions about credit risk spread recently, with more in the English section. The most commonly seen chart is probably the first one, which shows that the credit spread of 3C grade high-yield bonds (junk bonds) has indeed surged significantly in the past six months (the slope of the surge is heart wrenching). If we look at the trend of credit spread over the past three years (Figure 2), we will find that the current 3C credit spread has not yet reached the lower edge of the fluctuation range of credit spread in the past three years of 22-24. If we look at the trend of credit spread over the past twenty years (Figure 3), we will find that the credit spread is still at the bottom of the major cycle, far from the level of the financial crisis, Brexit in 2016, and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. If the current spread level is too high, I personally think it is a bit excessive to describe the financial crisis. It's not that looking at credit spreads at the moment is meaningless. We have been closely monitoring the trend of credit spreads, and the rapid surge naturally needs to be taken seriously. We need to continue to pay attention to the subsequent trend, but it should not have reached the threshold of truly triggering a financial crisis or a huge impact. This is an indicator that requires close attention but is not yet sufficient to cause panic. Let's briefly discuss the logic behind credit risk spreads here: The US credit risk spread=Merrill Lynch high-yield bond yield - US 10-year government bond yield (representing risk-free rate), which reflects the market's expectation of future corporate default risk. Among them, high-yield bonds are bonds issued by companies with lower credit ratings (rated below BBB), and due to the higher credit risk, the interest rate spread will be higher than that of general investment grade bonds. There is a reverse relationship between credit spreads and the stock market: When a company's operating conditions are good, future cash flows will grow, default risk will decrease (with lower credit risk), interest rate spreads will narrow, and the stock market will tend to rise; On the contrary, when a risk event occurs that leads to an increase in the risk of corporate default (with higher credit risk), the interest rate spread will widen and the stock market will tend to decline.