
Phyrex|Apr 01, 2025 19:28
Today we happened to talk about this topic. Although the Federal Reserve is currently in a cycle of interest rate cuts, it can be expected that there may only be a limited number of rate cuts in 2025, and even a limited reduction in interest rates in 2026 without triggering an economic recession. This is the best opportunity for Circle, as it can still ensure that T-Bills' interest rates remain at 4.5% when they go public in April or May.
And if we don't quickly enter the channel of interest rate cuts, the yield in 2025 is highly likely to remain around 4%, and the financial report for the first quarter of listing should not be bad. However, if we continue to delay, there may not be a better listing opportunity before 2030, after all, after the interest rate returns to 0, T-Bills' interest rate will be lower than 1%, or even lower.
For Circle, it was originally planned to go public in 2022, but a Silicon Valley bank crash dealt a great blow to Circle. Later, due to the recovery of the market and deeper cooperation with Coinbase, Circle once again had the opportunity to develop. However, neither 2023 nor 2024 are suitable for going public, as financing is too difficult.
The biggest turning point in 2025 is that the United States will prioritize stablecoins as the top solution in the cryptocurrency field, Circle has seized two opportunities, one is MiCA compliance in Europe, which perfectly replaces USDT, and the other is cooperation with Binance, which increases the use of USDC (LaunchPool), which is also the best listing opportunity for Circle.
And almost everyone knows that the opportunity for Cirlce to go public is before Q3. Although Cirlce can be bought after going public, its performance in 2026 will definitely decline significantly compared to 2025. Therefore, my plan is to open the market and see if we can ambush at a low price. If not, I will buy after the pullback in 2026.
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