BlackJack
BlackJack|Apr 01, 2025 04:38
Last week's rebound was said to be earlier than the main wave, because the tariff issue in early April was clearly bearish, so it was very normal for the market to start hedging last Thursday and Friday. I also reduced my position at 87500. There are currently no major market trends, so there are few updates. Let's briefly discuss the follow-up. The main theme of April will definitely be the issue of tariffs. Specific details will be announced at 3am on Thursday, especially after the US policy is announced, other countries will launch counterattacks. So there is still uncertainty throughout April. However, several economic data from April are worth referencing. If the data is positive, according to the previous deduction, the probability of a rate cut in June will be very high. So the cost-effectiveness of bottom fishing in April under the premise of negative policies is definitely good. As for whether it has fallen below the low point of March 11th, it is difficult to say. We can only buy at the bottom in batches and judge whether it is a small or medium decline based on the quality of economic data. GDP When the important data of employment, inflation, and consumer confidence are not very bad, the default decline of the entire US stock market is only a correction caused by hedging and killing high valuations, not a bear market like in 2022. More like the stagflation and wide range fluctuations of the 1970s. Once the interest rate cut cycle resumes and the impact of tariffs is fixed, a sustained rebound is about to begin. So every month, we need to pay attention to whether the economic fundamentals have changed. By using economic fundamentals, policies, and expected changes in interest rate cuts to determine the overall direction of the US stock market, we can also determine the overall direction of BTC. The remaining work for a single machine will be technical and other detailed data.
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