Bitcoin valuation: We have rechecked the data (mainly adjusting the timing of bull market highs and bear market lows) and included estimates of bear markets. Firstly, let's talk about the calculation basis, which is based on Merkov's law: the value of a network is proportional to the square of its number of nodes. We use the number of addresses with a balance greater than 0.01btc as the number of nodes to calculate their network value, divided into bear market and bull market: The square multiple of the coin price and address number during a bear market is relatively stable, and has remained stable at 2.5x in the past two times. Therefore, I think we can use 2.5x to estimate where the low point of the next bear market will be. During a bull market, multiples exhibit a "high low high low" pattern, also known as small and large years. Actually, it can also be understood that it roughly corresponds to the looseness of the macro environment. For example, the high point multiple at the end of 2021 was 36x, while the multiple at the end of 2024 was only 13. I roughly believe that the next bull market should be a high multiple, and macroscopically, the next one should also be a loose environment. 3/The cycle of bull market: This is the most troublesome point. In the past few times, the cyclicality has been very obvious, with bull market peaks taking about 4 years and bear market bottoms taking about 4 years. But there are problems in this round, and the biggest question here is whether the end of 2024 will be the peak of the bull market? If so, the 4-year cycle would become a 3-year cycle or no cycle at all. I don't think it's impossible, the key is that the halving of the cryptocurrency market has had an impact, and the inflation rate of Bitcoin has reached 0.83%, similar to ETFs, The annual throughput of MSTR and others has exceeded this, which means that miners are not the main dominant force now. This is questionable anyway, and there is also a possibility that it will be a 4-year cycle, which means there will be another wave by the end of the year. If it is assumed, the year-end coin price may reach a level of 13-14 million. Bear Market Prediction (Figure 1): Let's assume that the low point of the bear market is in the middle of 26 years. As mentioned earlier, the multiple at the bottom of the bear market is relatively stable at 2.5x. Based on the increase in the number of addresses, it can be inferred that the market value of Bitcoin is approximately 500 billion, corresponding to a price of around 2.5-30000. Bull Market Prediction (Figure 2): Similarly, time is the most difficult to predict. Assuming that the next bull market peak occurs at the end of the 27th, it corresponds to a market value of approximately 5-6 trillion yuan and a coin price of around 300000 yuan. I have shared this file, welcome to comment. https://docs. (google.com)/spreadsheets/d/19hI81FxhgxDj55JHKA-P5aeos0igUpHl7Xnv7oolJ5Y/edit? gid=0 gid=0