
Phyrex|Mar 30, 2025 19:38
On the last weekend of March, the market is still struggling in a downturn, and the biggest variable next week may be the upcoming implementation of tariffs.
I am not qualified to evaluate tariffs themselves, I can only look at the results they bring. A few hours ago, Trump's trade consultant Navarro mentioned in an interview with Fox that in the tariff policy next week, auto tariffs will increase by about $100 billion, and other tariffs will bring about about $600 billion in revenue every year.
What does this mean? In 2025, the US debt interest expenditure will be about $1.3 trillion, of which about $111 billion will be increased compared with that in 2024. That is to say, the increase in auto tariffs alone can theoretically cover this part of the new interest expenditure, while the increase in the overall tariff revenue can almost halve the US interest expenditure.
But the real world is not an Excel spreadsheet, and the mathematical meaning of fiscal revenue often cannot compete with the chain reaction of macroeconomics.
Firstly, tariffs are transfer taxes. It is not paid by foreign countries, but is passed on to domestic consumers and businesses in the United States, which means that imported goods are more expensive, business costs rise, consumer spending increases, and inflation naturally rebounds.
Secondly, tariffs can be 'reciprocal'. If the United States imposes tariffs and other countries retaliate, it will directly hit the US export industry, especially the manufacturing industry, ultimately affecting employment and GDP growth.
And once GDP growth slows down, government tax revenue decreases, and the US debt ratio rises instead of falling, not to mention if the expected tariff revenue is discounted due to weak consumption and unsold goods caused by high prices.
So the tariffs in April will be the main reason for the increased difficulty of the risk market, and we cannot simply comment on the pros and cons of tariffs in one sentence. It is more of a 'game'.
Looking back at Bitcoin's data, although the weekend prices were not friendly, there was no panic sentiment, and trading volume remained very low. Some retail investors began to leave due to fear of tariffs. If this is the case, the safe haven sentiment on Monday may continue to increase.
There's nothing else to say. The price change on Sunday did not cause much panic, and most investors remained on the sidelines, except for short-term investors who recently bought the bottom and left at a loss.
At present, there is still no movement in the dense chips of $93000 to $98000, and the bottom of $83000 is slowly forming.
This tweet is sponsored by @ ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With Apex
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