
Phyrex|Mar 29, 2025 18:58
The weekend homework is not that easy either. How to put it, I have said almost everything. Let's enjoy the tranquility before April first. The difficulty will increase from April onwards. This difficulty does not mean that the entire risk market will necessarily decline, but rather that after entering April, due to tariffs, GDP The game of macro data and other factors may lead the market into a larger fluctuation range, and any single direction is more dangerous.
I remember saying at the beginning of the month when it fell below $80000 that the short selling yield is not very high now because there is no information that can further increase the panic. However, April is hard to say, especially for GDP data. If it is really as expected by GDP Now, reaching -2.8%, I think the market's sentiment towards trading recession may become even more severe.
On the contrary, I don't have too much concern about tariffs, as the market has already anticipated it. After all, with such an unconventional president, the biggest impact of tariffs is inflation, which in turn affects the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Although this kind of trouble may exist, it is not so scary at the moment, but when combined with GDP data, it may become even more troublesome.
Of course, for BTC, I always believe that even if it doesn't perform well now, it won't be too bad when liquidity recovers. However, for other altcoins, as Bitcoin's amplitude expands, it may become even more difficult.
Although it has entered the weekend in the past 24 hours, with the decline in BTC prices, the market has still experienced a slight panic. This is mainly because many investors who bought at the bottom yesterday couldn't bear it anymore and chose to leave, while earlier investors were quite calm. In fact, from the trading volume, it can be seen that the actual trading volume is not high, and the selling pressure is not very great, mainly due to insufficient liquidity.
From the dense chip area of $93000 to $98000, it still shows a very slow decline, and investors in this area have not shown any signs of panic yet. It should be able to sustain in the short term.
Overall, transactions in April need to be more cautious. Tariffs are not necessarily 100% negative, and there may not be no opportunity for easing them. If the Russia Ukraine war can be stopped in April, it can also offset some inflation issues. As for GDP, I hope the data from GDP Now is wrong.
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