Just looking at the active address may be a bit biased, so you can look at the holders. If you look at the changes in the number of addresses with a balance>0.01 BTC (equivalent to $800): The ratio between the square of an address and its market value is approximately 13 (average, highest 19x, lowest 7.85) The annual growth rate of the number of addresses has remained stable at around 10% annually since 2017. According to an annualized growth rate of 10%, assuming that 2 years from now (the end of 2016) is the next bull market, the address can grow to 15 million. Calculated based on a constant of 13x, the market value of Bitcoin can reach 3 trillion, corresponding to a price of approximately 150000. So, lower your expectations BTC will be a cyclical stock in the future, with several times lower than the low point for bottom fishing.