Haotian | CryptoInsight
Haotian | CryptoInsight|Mar 29, 2025 09:56
A few opinions on the current primary and secondary markets: 1) The current debate about bull and bear is meaningless. It should be noted that apart from the continuous rise and fall of coin prices, bull and bear are mainly supported by market consensus expectations. If the market unanimously believes that most projects are "junk" and listing on exchanges becomes the end of the journey, while the "good news" built by project parties is ignored, then the current situation is undoubtedly a "bear market". A market where consensus expectations collapse is even more terrifying than one where there is simply no "price" performance. 2) The current crypto environment seems easier than ever, but at the same time harder than ever. From the initial expectation of decentralized infrastructure construction in the ICO market, to the upgrading and iteration of the technology narrative in the previous cycle, to the adoption of the main rising wave and MEME Coin wealth effect by institutions, until finally, the expected spot ETF of Crypto has been realized, supported by the friendly crypto government in the United States, and compliance laws and plans are also on the way, all "external factors" seem to be improving. But looking at Crypto itself, which projects are truly irreplaceable? What technology has the potential for large-scale implementation of Infra? What narratives are really not falsified? What coins can accompany long-term growth? Or are there any MEMEs that can sleep well overnight Presumably, when it comes to these "internal factors" issues, most people are confused. Obviously, with only favorable external factors and no internal value support, the market will still remain in a "chaotic" state. If we set aside the value trajectory and blindly focus on the irrational macro level water release to invest, wouldn't this market be too agonizing? 3) The problem has arisen, what should we do? Calling for a return to technological narrative is clearly not feasible without the innovative application of old technology projects. Similarly, criticizing the irrationality of the MEME market is also due to avoiding the main contradiction of technology being unable to be implemented. Everything is actually a systemic problem within the industry itself, caused by factors such as long-term opacity, potential manipulation, lack of regulation, and excessive pursuit of profits, resulting in a "game+internal friction". To break the deadlock, the process will inevitably be painful and must be handed over to time. For example, how to give a reasonable valuation to a valuable project, how to make those worthless harvesting projects lose their survival soil, how to make some new narrative directions continue to evolve and develop, and so on. Looking at it from a different perspective, only after the market speculation wave of 'assets as abundant as cattle' and the downward pressure of the market, will the opportunity for our value investment truly come. Even with many junk projects, there will always be teams with great visions, innovation and execution capabilities, and the ability to build in the long run, right? In fact, every cycle in the crypto industry has its moments of excessive Fomo and pessimistic despair, but it seems that they have all endured them and always come up with unexpected solutions to break the deadlock. Looking back, it has actually been making progress.
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