QCP： April has been a period of good performance for risk assets, and inflation data will be a key catalyst

According to BlockBeats, on March 25th, QCP released a daily market observation stating that JPMorgan Chase and an increasing number of strategists are telling their clients that the recent wave of US stock declines is likely to have passed, with improved market sentiment and historic seasonal support being the reasons. The second quarter, especially April, has been one of the best periods for risk assets in history, second only to the festive atmosphere of December's rise. The S&P 500 index achieved an average annualized return of 19.6% in the second quarter, while Bitcoin also set the second best median performance during this period, second only to the fourth quarter. Trump has stated twice on Monday that trading partners may receive tariff exemptions or reductions, which has helped ease market tensions. BTC briefly broke through $88000, while other cryptocurrencies performed better than BTC. However, the options market remains cautious and has not clearly turned bullish, indicating that traders are waiting for the development of the tariff situation. This Friday is the quarterly expiration date for options, with the highest open interest exceeding $100000 at the exercise price above. QCP expects that the main volatility will not be driven solely by option positions. Market attention will shift towards personal consumption expenditure inflation data, which may become the next key catalyst, and volatility in the US stock market is expected to rise.