The divergence in interest rates, the FED will turn around firstFOMC officials are expected to cut interest rates twice, mainly due to considerations of the potential impact of tariffs. It is necessary to remain cautious in cutting interest rates to avoid exacerbating inflationary pressures. But currently, the market still expects three interest rate cuts, which clearly reflects greater concerns about future economic growth. Market participants believe that the negative impact of slowing economic growth and policy uncertainty, and even greater volatility in financial markets, will outweigh the inflationary pressure brought about by tariffs, thus requiring a more proactive monetary policy response. This contrasts with the current forecast of the FOMC, which acknowledges the existence of uncertainty but does not seem to anticipate such a severe impact. Generally speaking, when the market expects more aggressive loose policies than predicted by the FOMC, it usually occurs during periods of economic uncertainty or high stock market pressure. If the market's concerns about potential recession or severe slowdown are proven to be correct, the FOMC usually adjusts its forecasts and implements larger interest rate cuts to support the economy. Although the market is often wrong, as long as Jin Mao does not change his hawkish style this time, I personally think the FOMC will be forced to adjust loose expectations and align with the market after several major market panic fluctuations.