飞凡
飞凡|Mar 22, 2025 13:10
Is there still a possibility of BTC collapse in the strategy (micro strategy)? On March 17th, Strategy once again acquired 130 BTC worth approximately $10.7 million at a price of around $82981 per Bitcoin, achieving a BTC yield of 6.9% from 2025 to present. As of now, Strategy strategy holds a total of 499226 BTC worth approximately $33.1 billion at a cost price of approximately $66360 per Bitcoin. What is the current level of risk? One is the centralization risk in the above data. Strategy holds approximately 2.4% of BTC circulation, exceeding $30 billion, and its position ratio is still increasing, but this is only one of the risks. The biggest risk is potential selling pressure in the future: 1. As Strategy continues to increase its holdings of BTC, selling it may potentially expose liquidity issues in the cryptocurrency market. Although the BTC market has a huge market value, its true liquidity in extreme market conditions may not be able to support the massive selling demand at the Strategy level. In the future, if Strategy needs to quickly liquidate assets for any reason, it is likely to encounter a serious liquidity gap, which will lead to drastic fluctuations in market prices. Similarly, if the BTC price drops significantly in the future, especially below the cost line of the strategy (such as a price drop of more than 20% to around $50000), Strategy will be in a state of paper loss, and they may be forced to repay debts or meet other financial needs by selling a large amount of BTC. → Article 1 3. The debt risks of the strategy also stem from their high leverage financing strategy Strategy uses a "cheap capital" strategy to heavily borrow money for increasing holdings of BTC. The debt issued by the strategy does not require a large amount of repayment in the short term, so it looks safe. The problem is that if the BTC price does not meet expectations before the debt matures, Strategy will have to repay a huge amount of debt principal and interest, which will create significant financial pressure. → Article 1 Once Strategy experiences a business or financial crisis, market sentiment quickly shifts from optimism to panic, and the speed and breadth of panic will far exceed general market volatility, leading investors to rush to sell BTC and other related assets, thereby plunging the cryptocurrency market into a long-term bear market. Of course, this could be the script for 2026 or even 2027. Currently, the majority of people are bullish on BTC, and Strategy still has a considerable amount of time to maintain the status quo. However, these systemic risks could be a serious blow to every ordinary investor.
+4
Mentioned
Share To

Timeline

HotFlash

APP

X

Telegram

Facebook

Reddit

CopyLink

Hot Reads