qinbafrank
qinbafrank|Mar 22, 2025 09:08
The overall liquidity of the market has been sluggish recently, but liquidity is gradually accumulating. 1. During the expected window period after reaching the debt ceiling, the significant increase in liquidity brought about by large-scale expenditures in the TGA account of the Ministry of Finance is becoming prominent. As of the 19th, the size of the TGA account of the Ministry of Finance has decreased to 380 billion US dollars, which means that the Ministry of Finance has vigorously spent over 400 billion US dollars in the past month. The result is that the size of bank reserves has increased to over 3.4 trillion US dollars, reserves have increased by 300 billion US dollars, and US dollar liquidity has increased by over 200 billion US dollars. Refer to Figures 1 and 2 2. The quarterly rebalancing of pension funds is about to begin at the end of March. Due to the rebalancing of funds between pension funds and long-term accounts, the market often experiences large-scale capital inflows, thereby enhancing market liquidity. UBS estimates that pension funds and target date funds are expected to buy $100 billion this quarter, the highest level since March 2020. 3. The size of US money market funds has exceeded $7 trillion, and if policy uncertainty weakens in the future and the market stabilizes, funds will also flow into the market. Yesterday, it was said that market sentiment had hit rock bottom, and in the future, there will be a situation where "good news for policies and the economy is good news for the market". Liquidity is accumulating, and if the market's concerns about macroeconomic policy uncertainty are gradually dispelled, it is likely to hit an upward trend.
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