qinbafrank
qinbafrank|Mar 21, 2025 07:15
The expectation of interest rate cuts for various assets is more hawkish than the Federal Reserve's dot matrix (twice a year). According to the calculation by CICC Overseas, based on a calculation of 25bp, the current asset value for the next year's interest rate cuts is as follows: Federal Reserve dot matrix (2 times)>US Treasury (1 time)>Nasdaq (0.6 times)>Gold (-0.2 times)>Copper (-0.6 times)>S&P 500 (-1.6 times)>Dow Jones (-1.8 times). Based on this estimate, it seems that the currency market is already pricing itself without interest rate cuts. The movement of the opposite way, the use of the weak way.
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