
Sina 🗝️⚡ 21st Capital|Mar 19, 2025 22:30
MATR is structured to avoid mNAV rising too much.
The moment the price wants to outperform Bitcoin, they will dilute in several ways. Plus they have now added a perpetual drag to the price due to the bond yields they have to pay.
When BTC goes up, hype accelerates, mNAV rises, and MSTR will recycle that back into treasury.
Ultimately mNAV mean-reverts.
When BTC goes down or sideways, hype dies, mNAV contracts.
So either way the case for outperformance pf the stock price is weakened now.
If you trade it and sell into the hype it is nice. But for a long-term holder I don’t anticipate massive outperformance vs. BTC.
I still have not heard of one MSTR guru mentioning how these yield products will add a drag to the stock price. Perverse incentives.
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