Today's homework is also a bit complicated. I used to say that the game between the market and the Federal Reserve has never won, and this time it's the same. In fact, if the market game wins, it will definitely be a good thing for the risk market. By cutting interest rates three times and suspending balance sheet reduction, it is estimated that Bitcoin may return to $90000 today. However, in reality, the market game has once again failed. Nick actually stated in his post tonight that the Federal Reserve has no plans to cut interest rates before the fourth quarter, so it is highly likely that there will be two interest rate cuts. The resulting dot matrix is also two, and the number of interest rate cuts in 2026 has not changed, still two. This is a relatively hawkish point. However, the Federal Reserve did take a step back in reducing its balance sheet, dropping from $25 billion per month to $5 billion. But Powell's answer is that he chose to reduce the balance sheet in order to maintain a longer contraction cycle. In other words, if he didn't reduce before, he might have reduced it in about 6 months. Now that he reduces it, he can shrink the balance sheet for about 15 months, which has a deterrent effect on the market. Therefore, he didn't choose to pause or stop, just not to send the wrong signal to the market. However, overall market reactions tend to be optimistic, as the possibility of an increase in the number of interest rate cuts related to taxes is not high. If there is really a significant increase, we need to worry about whether it will lead to a recession. The attitude of the Federal Reserve indicates that there is no expectation of a recession in the US economy, which is a good thing in a bad situation. Moreover, reducing balance sheet cuts is equivalent to reducing withdrawals from the market, which is also acceptable. But at the level of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve today has not relaxed at all, has not loosened its stance on interest rate cuts, has not loosened its stance on balance sheet contraction, and has shifted the blame for rising inflation to tariffs, and then continues to look at the data. Overall, it is quite neutral, but I personally feel a bit biased towards hawks. The next step is to see how the market plays. Looking back at Bitcoin's data, the turnover in the past 24 hours has not only increased but also decreased, as expected yesterday. Many investors are waiting for today's game and are not in a hurry to participate in the turnover. Therefore, even short-term investors are maintaining relative restraint, but this restraint may not last too long. Although the rise of the US stock market and cryptocurrency is good from the current market perspective, the current interest rate meeting has not changed the trend from "rebound" to "reversal". The issue of tariffs still gives the Federal Reserve a headache, and the slow growth of the economy is also recognized by the Federal Reserve. Powell clearly stated that he is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, so this is still not enough to meet the conditions for reversal. April may be a big exam. Tariffs and GDP are both in April. Because the turnover is very low, there is still no threat to the dense chips between $93000 and $98000. The emotions of loss making investors are very stable. Let's see when this rebound can last. Data has been updated, address: https://docs. (google.com)/spreadsheets/d/1E9awSVwrVOxKOiaMdYT5YZvfveeFd9ENU-iO6dVcGj0/edit? usp=sharing This tweet is sponsored by @ ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With Apex