Attention, brothers ⚠️ Tonight, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision The market generally expects the meeting to keep interest rates unchanged. The latest data shows that the inflation rate in the United States has dropped to 2.8% (expected to be 3.1%), And Truflation's real-time inflation index has dropped to 1.7%, These data may prompt the Federal Reserve to lower its interest rate expectations in the 2025 dot matrix. According to the chart law, this wave of market risk appetite may rise, risk assets will rebound, and interest rate reduction is necessary, but we need a little time, Trump and Xiaoma are working hard. The arrival of an economic recession will force interest rates to fall back to zero levels. -The purple line represents the expected path of interest rates (predicted by Federal Reserve members) -The red line represents the interest rate trend path (if an economic recession occurs) In the current situation, it is indeed difficult to choose between two options To prevent inflation and recession, but with good inflation data and economic data softening without recession, maintaining interest rates seems comfortable; However, with the deterioration of the financial environment, a downward shift in potential economic growth, and soaring inflation expectations, it seems that the Federal Reserve should do something - directly raising or lowering interest rates is not appropriate, and expectation management is also contradictory - the economy is doing well and inflation is stable, so why should interest rates be lowered/increased? If interest rates are cut in the future, does it imply a weakening of the economy (obviously without deflation risk)? If we raise interest rates, does it imply worsening inflation? Given the current weak market sentiment, Powell's response that a slight mistake could lead to a market crash may be best: the economy is doing well now, and if the situation is not right, we will raise or lower interest rates in advance. Soothing the current situation and ensuring future market support, killing two birds with one stone.