Many brothers ask whether the bull bear pattern of BTC's four-year cycle still exists? Has this bull market come to an end? Next, I will analyze through on chain data and macro data The price of Bitcoin has always followed a four-year cycle pattern. Brothers all know that the significant fluctuations in the initial issuance rate of Bitcoin had a huge impact on its effective supply, which in turn drove the formation of this cycle. Currently, the total amount of Bitcoin is set at 21 million, of which over 19.8 million have been mined. The previous cycle was in 2021, and many people thought that this four-year cycle pattern was coming to an end, but in reality, it was not. We have instead seen a double peak pattern, with the second peak occurring at the end of 2021, the year after Bitcoin halved. ​ If this four-year cycle were to repeat itself, it is expected to occur at some point in November or December of this year. It should be noted that Bitcoin does not exist in isolation, it is now a trillion dollar asset, and the channels for entering traditional markets are more convenient than ever before. ​ Given the diminishing impact of Bitcoin halving and the increasing maturity of this asset, I can't help but wonder if this four-year cycle can happen again without a favorable macro environment. Fortunately, the global money supply continues to grow, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy is no longer as strict. I personally believe that by the end of 2025, the stock market may have a strong performance. If this situation comes true, Bitcoin's performance is likely to take it to the next level, laying the foundation for a strong trend in the fourth quarter of 2025. I still firmly believe that Bitcoin is expected to break through the $150000 mark later this year. ​ In the analysis process, the power curve fitting method is used to adjust the past price of Bitcoin, in order to compare the past cycle price with the price in 2025. Let's compare the situation in 2013, 2017, 2021, and 2025. ​ In 2013, it was in a stage of gradual recovery: financial conditions had improved to some extent, but remained fragile, economic growth was slow, inflation and interest rates remained at low levels, the stock market performed strongly, and although the labor market was recovering, it remained weak. ​ In 2017, it was the peak period of expansion: the overall economic situation was good, the economy maintained moderate growth, inflation was within a controllable range, interest rates gradually rose, the stock market was in a bull market, the labor market was healthy, and it was close to the peak of expansion after the economic recession. ​ In 2021, it belongs to the stimulus driven rebound stage: the financial environment is extremely loose, economic growth is rapid, inflation rates are rising, interest rates remain low, the stock market is booming, and the labor market is at the peak of recovery driven by stimulus policies. ​ In 2025, it is in a stable period: the financial environment is more tight compared to previous years, the economy maintains moderate growth, inflation is effectively controlled, interest rates are at a high level, the stock market fluctuates greatly, the labor market is relatively stable, and the overall situation is in a cautious stable stage. ​ Let's take a look at the key data comparison again: Performance of the S&P 500 Index: In 2013, it increased by 29.6%; In 2017, it increased by 19.4%; Rising by 26.9% in 2021; From the beginning of 2025 to present, it has fallen by 4.4%. ​ Federal Funds Rate: In October 2013, it was 0.09; In October 2017, it was 1.3; In October 2021, it was 0.08; January 2025 is 4.33. ​ Percentage change in US M2 money supply: In 2013, it was 5.5%; In 2017, it was 4.8%; In 2021, it was 12.6%; In January 2025, it was 0.06%. ​ Year over year inflation rate in the United States: In October 2013, it was 1.5%; In October 2017, it was 2.1%; In October 2021, it was 7%; In January 2025, it was 2.8%. ​ US unemployment rate: In October 2013, it was 6.7%; In October 2017, it was 4.1%; In October 2021, it was 3.9%; In January 2025, it was 4.1%. ​ In my personal opinion, why do I say 'depending on the bull market'? Everyone should remember that there are no philanthropists in the cryptocurrency industry, especially in the dog market. They will not sell and arbitrage for everyone during high-level horizontal fluctuations. The longer the high-level horizontal fluctuations last, the greater the cost for the main players of the market makers. The current market is in the stage of "smart money turnover", and those retail investors who have been scared off by daily fluctuations may be personally handing over their blood stained chips to the next round of main uptrend drivers. Remember: the true top is always accompanied by FOMO frenzy, not current panic discussions. Maintain patience and wait for the whale to complete its final position restructuring. This article is sponsored by Gateio | @ Gateio_zh