
Phyrex|Mar 19, 2025 04:55
Firstly, as expected. Japan did not adjust interest rates in March, and Nick's recent statement almost represents the Federal Reserve's view at this moment. The Fed has no intention of starting interest rate cuts within six months, before the end of the third quarter (September). Here are three implications:
The Federal Reserve did not believe that an economic recession would occur. So we still maintain a high interest rate state and reduce inflation through interest rates.
2. The Federal Reserve has considered the possibility of economic recession, but because Trump's tariff policy has led to tariffs that may increase inflation, the Federal Reserve needs to observe more data before making decisions.
The probability of three interest rate cuts in 2025 will be very low, with only two regular interest rate meetings in November and December in the fourth quarter. The probability of two consecutive interest rate cuts is quite high.
Overall, this is a relatively hawkish approach. The market believes that the first interest rate cut in June is almost impossible, and unless there is a black swan, the Federal Reserve should not adjust interest rates. The key is that the Federal Reserve has not made a statement on reducing its balance sheet, which can still be expected.
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