Market chaos caused by macro factors does not necessarily mean reduced opportunities Negative and positive events often depend on each other Investors need to carefully consider the impact of the following five factors on the future market: 1. Are recession concerns exaggerated? The core reason for triggering recession concerns is The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank's GDPNow estimate shows a growth rate of -2.4% in the first quarter of 2025, but in fact, gold imports and weather disturbances are temporary factors causing a decline in growth rates. Adjusted growth may increase from -2.4% to 0.4%, and economic data is likely to recover quickly. 2. Inflation cools down and CPI tends to ease The annual growth rate of CPI in February dropped to 2.81%, returning to a downward trend after a temporary surge in January. The housing and transportation industries showed significant deflation, which is one of the few direct benefits. 3. Economic impact of Trump administration Trump's policies include repatriating 250000 to 500000 immigrants and cutting over 200000 government jobs. Immigration policies are likely to tighten the labor market, and government layoffs may also affect local economies, but overall economic resilience may still avoid recession. 4. Trade tensions Global markets have fluctuated due to Trump's tariff policies and lower than expected technology gains, prompting investors to turn to safe assets such as gold, which has pushed gold prices above $3000 per ounce. Most people criticize Trump's tariff policy due to concerns about stock market volatility, but this may not necessarily indicate that the policy itself is flawed. On the contrary, it could be a good time to buy risky assets 5. Germany's large-scale fiscal expansion Germany's plan for 500 billion euros in infrastructure and defense spending, combined with the EU's 800 billion euros in military investment, is essentially aimed at promoting a stronger euro, raising German bond yields, narrowing the yield gap between the US and Europe, and boosting the European economy. But at the same time, this also means an increase in potential risks of debt and inflation.