
cygaar|Mar 16, 2025 23:16
It's way too early to say that "web3 gaming is dead".
The concept of blockchain gaming has only been around for ~7 years. We didn't see the first wave of teams trying to build blockchain games until maybe 5 years ago. The crypto gaming industry is still very much in its infancy.
There are three major factors I look at when assessing the state of web3 gaming - the number of teams, the quality of teams, and how long they've had to build. All of these contribute to the number of "shots on goal" that crypto games have had to be successful. I would estimate that crypto has had ~100 or shots on goal over the last 5 years.
For context, 15k games were released just on Steam last year alone. Only a couple dozen of those games (maybe up to 100) found major success. There's also a great post from @TGIFresco that talks about Supercell only releasing 6 games in 20 years. The success rate for gaming is just extremely low, probably lower than it is for other consumer products.
It also just takes time to make good games. Stardew Valley took 4.5 years, Runescape took 3+ years, EVE online took 3+ years, CSGO took ~3 years, and WoW took 5+ years just to launch the first version of these games (and many of these teams were well funded). Like I mentioned earlier, we've only had at most 5 years for many of the teams building crypto games. This is going to be a long process.
Web3 gaming just hasn't had enough teams or enough time to have a lot of major hits. We've seen several games already find some PMF within the crypto space, and I expect this growth to continue. We're going to see teams that were building the last few years start releasing the first versions of their games very soon.
My point here is that web3 gaming is just getting started. I think there are some very unique aspects of blockchain games that could really kickstart a new wave of crypto adoption, but I'll save that for a future article.
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