The homework on Sunday is still not complicated, although the amplitude is slightly larger, it has almost no impact on most investors. Spending the weekend smoothly is already good, after all, we will enter a game mode from next week. Yesterday's homework has been explained quite clearly. The Japanese interest rate meeting on the 19th should not be adjusted, and the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting on the 20th is highly likely not to be adjusted either. But now the market is beginning to anticipate the suspension of balance sheet tightening on the 20th, and it is not ruled out that there may have been an early reaction when the market opened on Monday, after all, the US government shutdown also ended over the weekend, and Polymarket has given a 100% probability that the Federal Reserve will stop shrinking its balance sheet before May. This is actually a relatively dangerous signal. If it really happens, it can be regarded as the Federal Reserve's optimistic expectation of inflation, and it can also be seen as the reason why the Federal Reserve is worried about tariffs causing a recession. Adding the dot matrix and Powell's speech, it's really a gamble, and it's a complete gamble. For example, the situation of cutting interest rates three times and suspending balance sheet reduction, only cutting interest rates three times without suspending balance sheet reduction, cutting interest rates twice and suspending balance sheet reduction, only cutting interest rates twice, and cutting interest rates less than twice, etc., are all tests of the market sentiment. I also talked about this issue in Space today. If there are too many interest rate cuts and the balance sheet is stopped, it may be due to concerns about recession. If there are too few interest rate cuts and the balance sheet is not reduced, although we are not worried about recession, we need to worry about inflation, so it is too difficult for investors. Looking back at the data of Bitcoin itself, the weekend was quite easy. Although the amplitude was slightly high, the impact was not significant, and it was evident that investors on the chain had very little turnover. This was almost the lowest turnover rate since entering 2025, with only over 20000 BTC traded throughout the day. This also indicates that most investors have no interest in the current price. There is no longer much to analyze about this turnover rate, and we can see the mentality of real investors without the interference of market makers and institutions. However, this low turnover rate will be more affected by emotions. Regardless of the outcome on the 20th, this calm day may not be here for the time being. The low turnover rate will not affect the natural support. Although there are signs of gradually accumulating chips at $83000, it will take a long time to achieve bottoming out. However, the price range of $93000 to $98000 is still very strong, and there are no signs of panic in the short term. The rest depends on next week. Data has been updated, address: https://docs. (google.com)/spreadsheets/d/1E9awSVwrVOxKOiaMdYT5YZvfveeFd9ENU-iO6dVcGj0/edit? usp=sharing This tweet is sponsored by @ ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With Apex