Whales' Market Wrap: Mar 12, 2025 BTC 30D ATM IV: 55.34% | ETH 30D ATM IV: 72.57% | SOL 30D ATM IV: 105.80% SPX 30D ATM IV: 21.48% | QQQ 30D ATM IV: 27.61% | GLD 30D ATM IV: 15.96% BTC annualised 1yr implied yield: 7.20% ETH annualised 1yr implied yield: 6.91% After several days of selling, investors' risk aversion towards risky assets has finally eased. US stocks have begun to rebound, and funds have shown signs of returning to assets closely linked to the US dollar. However, it must be admitted that the current rebound is more like a mean reversion of asset prices after an oversold situation rather than a return of safe-haven funds brought about by improved policy fundamentals. Investors remain relatively cautious. Lower-than-expected CPI data and growing hopes for a ceasefire in the Russian-Ukrainian war are the main reasons for easing risk aversion. However, as the tariff war progresses, the improvement in policy uncertainty is insignificant. In this case, investors tend to hold indexes rather than individual stocks, which is why mega stocks have rebounded while small and medium-sized stocks continue to perform poorly. The situation in the crypto market is similar. Non-BTC cryptos are usually regarded as risk assets of the same level or lower than small and medium-sized stocks. At a time when uncertainty levels are still high, investors do not choose to hold them after risk aversion eases. In contrast, BTC, which is regarded as a macro asset, is the first choice after risk aversion eases. As a result, BTC's market share is still rising steadily, while ETH, as a mega non-BTC crypto, has fallen below 8.5%. As we expected, BTC has shown stronger resilience. BTC's 1yr implied forward rate has also improved as prices have recovered, rising to around 7.2%. In contrast, ETH's 1yr implied forward rate has not changed significantly. In the options market, risk aversion still seems to dominate. Although medium- and long-term sentiment has improved, bearish sentiment still dominates the front month. While closing out their heavily losing call option positions, options traders are actively buying weekly or even 0DTE put options as protection for their portfolios. The strong demand for tail risk hedging has led to the market pricing of potential front-end volatility still being relatively high. Considering that many important data and macro uncertainties are still on the way, it may take some time for investor sentiment to improve further.