In plain language, let's talk about the next trend of the BTC market (for reference) Preface: At the macro and political levels, tariffs (inflation), Russia and Ukraine end, interest rates are lowered, balance sheet tightening is stopped, and SLR is lowered (in simple terms, it is to relax an important "tightening spell" on banks, banks have more to do other things, such as lending to enterprises and bringing liquidity to the market) And the economy has not declined. Trump needs to pay close attention to the tariff of Mogaka, which is the biggest uncertainty. But there is also a hedge, which is the end of the Russia Ukraine agreement and the US Ukraine agreement on rare earth mining, which can offset tariffs on Mexico and Canada, and even resolve the issue of European tariffs. PS： Tariffs affect inflation, and the continued volatility of inflation makes the Federal Reserve less eager to cut interest rates, as high interest rates are more likely to trigger an economic recession. So an increase in tariffs indirectly equals an increase in the likelihood of recession. The price range obtained from the on chain data of BTC is shown in the following figure, The main text is here, which is the conclusion. Next, the trend of the BTC market, including the analysis of price ranges (non investment advice) This morning, Ukraine accepted a 30 day ceasefire agreement with the United States and will reach a mineral agreement as soon as possible. Both the US and Canada have reduced their tariffs. So for the positive sentiment, it can be seen that both the US stock market and BTC have risen at the same time. BTC has temporarily reversed yesterday's downward risk and turned into a rebound to repair its upward trend, reaching a peak of 83700. Currently, it has slightly fallen back and oscillated at 82000. The CPI data released tonight, if it can be lower than the previous value, it will be good for the mood, and then the price will continue to rise. But after entering the US time zone, we will see the reaction of the US stock market, especially the event that needs to be paid attention to all the time is the tariff issue or the progress of Russia and Ukraine. Will the Sichuan Pubic Association repeat? If it passes smoothly, it will certainly not cause a big blow to the price. Then this weekend, from Sunday evening Beijing time until the opening of the US stock market next Monday, check the market sentiment. If the mood is not good, it may ruin the market again, and then it will be the 3.20 interest rate meeting. At present, the interest rate will not be cut in March, mainly depending on Powell's wording, the year's bitmap, the statement of shrinking the table, and the situation of Trump tariff. Statements such as cutting interest rates more than twice this year, slowing down or stopping balance sheet tightening are positive sentiment, and BTC will continue to rise. But negative language should not be used, such as feeling that a recession is imminent and increasing the frequency of interest rate cuts. This is not acceptable. Simply put, being dovish is a positive market sentiment. So the industry will have a brief period of continued upward recovery. But pay attention to Trump's tariff increase during this period. Especially in the time zone of the United States. If tariffs do not cause any problems this month, the interest rate meeting can release positive news, and Russia and Ukraine are also moving towards a halt, then prices can be seen to be above 92000 or even higher, but it still depends on the price before the 20th. No matter how much this price can rise, even if it reaches 100000 yuan, it will only rebound. Next April, Trump once again declared that reciprocal tariffs would be opened on April 2, and said that it would not shrink, so the impact of tariffs on inflation is still very important. So can there be a positive hedge at that time? If not, the price that rose after the interest rate meeting may be pushed back and the price will fall again. Whether it will fall to a new low this time depends on the continued game of negative and positive emotions. Going forward, it's a matter of whether there will be a decline or not. If there is a recession, although it depends on the unemployment rate being greater than 5.5% and the continuous decline in GDP data for two consecutive quarters. This timeline is in June or July. But it may also be due to the issue of tariffs, as mentioned earlier, tariffs affect inflation, and the continued fluctuation of inflation makes the Federal Reserve less eager to cut interest rates. High interest rates are more likely to trigger an economic recession. If tariffs cannot be eased and continue to be imposed, a recession may come earlier. It will be 312 of this cycle again So at that time, BTC will drop below 65000, or even lower, depending on the price before the recession. If it falls from 100000 to 80000, then the bottom will definitely be different. Based on the analysis idea of the information obtained so far, the main variable factor is too large, that is, Trump. Maybe he won't increase tariffs, so we need to look at the situation after April while walking. I need to combine macro and on chain data to look at it, this is my logic. Not as investment advice. Thank you all. As for the true reversal, a bull market, in simple terms, requires expansion of the balance sheet. Let's focus on the end of the table reduction for now. After the reduction of the balance sheet stops, it is not immediately necessary to expand the balance sheet. To expand the balance sheet, a liquidity shock is needed.