
梭教授说|Mar 12, 2025 07:56
At the end of the day, I still like gambling and don't like sitting down
The recent market situation is actually similar to what everyone had imagined at the end of 2021. Everyone understands and can comprehend it, but they just don't want to get off the table.
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In fact, we all know that it is like 2021 to see the interest rate increase in 2022, and 2024 to see Trump after taking office.
At the end of 2021, most people knew that interest rates would start to rise in 2022, but due to various reasons, they didn't get off the table, and then interest rates came, directly draining liquidity.
This time, when Trump came to power, we could foresee that the US stock market would plummet, the US economy might have a hard landing, the interest rate cut might not come so soon, and everything would happen as expected, but everyone was still on the table.
I think we still need to analyze it from a psychological perspective, mainly because we believe that if we are too awesome, we will definitely escape to the top, and then we have greed. We lose more than we lose and run away, insisting on recouping our costs or making a little profit before leaving.
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At least by the end of 2021, I predicted that the market would not be very good, and I have been looking for opportunities to find something that can guarantee a good harvest during droughts and floods.
First, I cheated on the HNT mining machine, and then I cheated on BITDAO. The former lost all my money, while the latter has been four years and I still haven't recovered.
Even for ETH, I didn't run at 4800 just to sell at 5000, and only ran at 3200 in the end, not to mention other assets like YGG that have fallen by more than 99%.
Of course, there are also the four great kings of blockchain games that were once mentioned. They also wanted to ensure income in droughts and floods, but in the end, they didn't leave any capital. I still remember that my Carter 40wu didn't run, and someone told me to take it, 'Legendary Card Legend Empowerment.' It's been four years now, but there hasn't been any empowerment at all.
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And the market situation in 22-23 did indeed happen as expected, with the market draining liquidity directly under the continuous interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, and then all the stories happened.
After Trump took office, everything that happened in the US stock market was predictable.
After all, Trump can't let the Biden government enjoy the perfect life after his interest rate cut, and let itself take over the mess left by the Biden government's interest rate increase. So I said I would always reduce my position when Trump won the election last year.
But it can't resist greed.
My sol started selling at 180, sold out at 240, and then started buying memes on the chain from 260-290. I basically lost more than 50%, not to mention the positions on the base, which fell by more than 90%. Only a 90% drop is a small drop for me.
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Everyone knows that in the end, the Federal Reserve will definitely cut interest rates, the United States will definitely open the floodgates and release water, and a large amount of funds will flow into the market, but they just can't wait.
We don't have the patience of Buffett. Recently, many people have started talking about Buffett, and we know how interesting he is. In the past, there were various jokes mocking Buffett for saying that he would surpass him in a day. Now everyone says that Buffett still has patience and is willing to wait for an opportunity every 20 years. The main reason is that people probably don't have any cash left.
Perhaps the deeper reason is that we do not believe in ourselves. After all, how can we predict the collapse of Trump's US stock market when he takes office?
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Mainly, people still prefer short-term trading within the day, or prefer to have something to rush every day. They never consider this as an investment, but rather as gambling, and investing is not addictive, gambling is addictive.
Have you ever seen a serious person who charges dozens of CA in a day?
So ultimately, people still like to gamble, just like playing in a casino. They don't like to get off the table, they always play cards, and they will eventually lose everything. After all, casinos are not afraid of winning money, they are afraid of you not playing.
If brothers play as a casino, they must follow the casino mindset, not the investment mindset.
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