Analyst: Multiple indications suggest that $76600 is the final low point for this Bitcoin pullback

BlockBeats news, on March 12th, according to Cointelegraph, analyst Marcel Pechman stated that the correction of Bitcoin may have ended due to the impact of the derivatives market, the weak US dollar, and the contagion effect of the US budget crisis. On March 11th, the price of Bitcoin fell to a 4-month low of $76700, following a 6% drop in the S&P 500 index within a week. The stock market adjustment has pushed the index to its lowest level in six months, and investors expect the possibility of a global economic recession to increase. Although Bitcoin has fallen 30% from its historical high of $109350, multiple key indicators suggest that this correction may have come to an end. Some analysts believe that Bitcoin has entered a bear market. However, the current price trend is significantly different from the November 2021 crash, in which Bitcoin fell from $69000 to $40560 in 60 days. The current adjustment is more similar to the medium-term correction of US $49220 60 days after falling 31.5% from US $71940 on June 7, 2024. At the beginning of the bear market at the end of 2021, the US dollar strengthened relative to a basket of foreign currencies, as reflected in the DXY index, which rose from 92.4 in September 2021 to 96.0 in December 2021. However, DXY was 109.2 at the beginning of 2025 and has since dropped to 104. Traders believe that Bitcoin is negatively correlated with the DXY index because it is primarily seen as a risky asset rather than a safe haven tool during a weak US dollar. Overall, the current market situation shows no signs of investors shifting towards cash positions, which supports the price of Bitcoin. The Bitcoin derivatives market remains stable, despite the decline in Bitcoin prices, the current annualized premium for futures remains at 4.5%. Compared to this time, the annualized premium of futures dropped below 0% after the Bitcoin price crash on June 18, 2022. Similarly, the financing interest rate of Bitcoin perpetual futures is close to zero, indicating a balanced demand for leverage between long and short positions. Under bear market conditions, it usually leads to excessive demand for short positions, driving financing rates below zero. Essentially, Bitcoin's return to $90000 is due to the weakening of the US dollar, historical data showing a 30% price correction that does not indicate a bear market, and the resilience of the BTC and its derivatives market.