Orange Evening Interpretation 3.11 The fairy fights and the kid suffers. The collective collapse of the US stock market is not Trump's intention. Trump has fulfilled almost all his promises to encryption before he came to power. I don't believe he will deliberately backstab his encryption power, but in order to force Powell to reduce interest rates and surrender, he must take the initiative to create a recession. For four years, fast bears and slow bulls are not necessarily beautiful! ​ In recent days, both the US stock market and the currency market have entered into a panic market similar to the bear market. Everyone began to scold Trump for having to engage in tariff stick, and scold Musk for having to do doge. The officials dare to be corrupt. They can't afford to speculate in currency and stocks. The currency circle is also very dissatisfied with Trump. Although he has fulfilled almost all his commitments before he came to power, including the policy of taking Bitcoin as a strategic reserve of the United States, which even our own people in the currency circle could not believe at that time, Trump has delivered to you. But there is no way. As long as the market falls, Trump must not be awesome, and he will be scolded. In fact, by looking at the nature of the phenomenon, this wave of decline in the stock market and currency market is not so simple. Trump is not a fool. Before he came to power, he called the crypto capital of the United States. Bitcoin was the best to rush to 15w. After he came to power, he would harvest all the people who supported his currency circle. This is definitely not his intention. Otherwise, who would dare to support him in the future. The stock market is also the same. The U.S. stock market has been standing for so many years and can almost equal the achievements of the president. Although Trump came to power this time with the help of the red necked proletariat and the new rich in the currency circle, the U.S. stock market is still the last big question in the examination paper. I don't believe that Trump has put the U.S. stock market like this The achievements accumulated over decades have been spoiled. In my opinion, Trump's tariff stick and recession are all intentional. It is to fight with the Federal Reserve and fight against Powell to see who can't help saving American stocks first. In the Biden era, Powell and the President wore a pair of pants. Now Trump's most hope is that Powell will surrender. I guess if the Federal Reserve can't stand it first and cut interest rates to save the market, Trump may also converge tariff and other austerity policies and cooperate with Powell to lift the market, so that everyone will be happy. The worst result is that Powell must wait for the Democratic Party to come to power before he is willing to cut interest rates. Then Trump's character is likely to After abandoning the US stock market, let the market enter a recession in an all-round way, and then use the presidency of Powell to exert pressure, of course, Trump will also face the loss of public support, even large-scale protests and trust crisis. In short, the current market decline is so miserable, which is actually caused by the fight between Trump and Powell. The most intuitive feeling of the market is that the recession risk is increasing. JPMorgan Chase raised the recession risk this year to 40%, and Goldman Sachs also marked the recession as the top ten reasons for the US stock avalanche. In addition, Trump's big mouth is always changing, with no credibility to speak of, and lacks confidence in Trump's emergency policy to rescue the market. In a word, the world is watching Powell's reaction. He has been recognized by General Trump. Tomorrow night's CPI data and the FOMC meeting on March 19 should give us the answer. It depends on Powell's choice. CME now expects that the probability of interest rate reduction in May has reached 53%, 10 percentage points higher than yesterday. If the cycle of interest rate reduction can be started in May, then both the U.S. stock market and the currency market will live, otherwise the bull market will end. Now the currency market has been deeply bound to the U.S. stock market. If the U.S. stock market crashes, the currency market will be difficult to live alone, except for the big cake, which is now at the same level as gold, but I I always think that Trump has a strategy. First suppress, then improve. The first year will create recession, and then the next three years will be slow.